We have all been talking about our issues with Google Buzz.  In theory, having your conversations aggregated in your email should be a huge convenience. But from the moment Buzz appeared in our inboxes, it was greeted as either a savior or a marauder. And a week later, even the people who had thought "savior," had gone to the dark side. In fact Dave Winer turned it off after only a few hours. Robert Scoble, however, keeps trying to use it, as does Thomas Hawk. Thomas, who is a brilliant digital photographer, thinks it's a great place to display photos, and for him, it seems to be. He puts some photos up, they are awesome, and one or two people say so.

 Scoble, however, is less fortunate in his use of Buzz. He is the original firehose. This weekend he started a Buzz asking his readers which of the location-based services they preferred. I suspect that was his swan song with the tool, because I could see he was determined to answer almost every commenter. About 60 comments in, I registered my own opinion. The next day, I returned to Buzz to see if he had responded to me.

In all fairness to him, he doesn't answer everything I write to him, even though we're friends. Sometimes when I comment on his blog, it's just my way of saying "hi, buddy, long time no see." But when I went back to the original Buzz, there were over two hundred comments, and I couldn't even find where I had weighed in. Yes, some of the comments had been collapsed, but still…I never found my original comment.

Conclusions:

Buzz is not good for conversations. Unlike Friendfeed,  when it was used by people like Steve Gillmor and Leo laPorte for chatrooms during their shows, it doesn't perform well in real time, and if you have a long conversation with many people in it, the conversation becomes more effort to follow than it's worth.

There's too much spam, or too many voices weighing in just to hear themselves.

Rooms won't help that much, because unless the rooms are semi-private, we will be having conversations with the wrong people sometimes.

I only want to have conversations (attention gestures) with two kinds of people: those I already know and respect (social graph), and those I want to know and respect (discovery). The rest, please, should be silence, not Buzz. 

Now, somebody solve that problem for me in the real time stream.

Posted via email from Not Really Stealthmode

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Real estate investors should invest in startup tech companies.Typically, early stage angels and real estate investors never mix, because the real estate guys feel like they can’t measure the risk in startup investing.  But there’s not that much difference; I invest in both, and I know. What’s really cool is that real estate and tech often run counter-cyclically, and investing in tech is a good way to keep money at work when there’s nothing to do in real estate. Many real estate investors I know have cash on the sidelines right now, because there are is a surplus of empty space. And yet they won’t participate in companies that could grow and fill their space.  How short-sighted!

I just finished participating in a real estate deal in which I was a small investor. I’m never a big investor; I did that once and lost my pants. I leave the big investments to the big guys and diversify my portfolio in real estate as in everything else by making smaller investments.

In this particular deal, I was part of a consortium that raised money to buy some “finished lots.” Finished lots, in case you don’t know this jargon, are pieces of land that have been bought by somebody previously as raw land. That first buyer, who probably bought the land from a farmer, takes the land through an entitlement process (zoning) to find out how many homes can be built on the piece of land. The land is then subdivided into that number of lots, and the improvements are put in. (Water, electricity, telephone, sidewalks — whatever must be in a subdivision in that jurisdiction.)

Land is bought for $x per acre. Let’s call that the seed money.  As finished lots, the same land is worth 3-4x per acre.  Let’s all that Series A. Homebuilders then buy the finished lots. Let’s all that Series B.  They build houses on the lots. And the houses sell for  3-4x the price of the lots. So there you have it. A finished  lot that costs $20,000 sustains a house that costs $120,000.  The sale of the home is the exit for the homebuilder.

These are rough numbers because I’m not a spreadsheet jockey, but you can see where the land gets valued higher and higher as time goes on. Why is that different from the valuation of a startup company?

In this case, the homebuilder that owned the finished lots couldn’t build on them immediately, because there’s no market. He had a one time opportunity for a tax recapture in 2009, so he fire-sold them to us. We will hold them.  The land just participated in a down round!

How is this different from a tech company?  Not very. Real estate has a burn rate, even land.  You have to pay the taxes, keep it clear, stop kids from vandalizing it, or people from dumping on it, or whatever. In commercial real estate, the burn is higher; you have to keep utilities running, landscaping maintained, and so on.

I’ve been in land partnerships that are twenty years old, where we have exited partially but still own part of the land. How is this different from a tech company in a VC portfolio that doesn’t make it big? That limps along? I’ve also been in land partnerships where we’ve exited with 10x returns, like startup investors have.

So what is there for a real estate investor to be wary of?

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