–Thanks to Maureen Karabatsos, my dear friend from Empire West Title for the wi-fi that makes this live post possible. Her Verizon mi-fi is my lifeline:-)
The economists always speak first:
Joshua Scoville, Chief Financial Adviser, Property and Portfolio Research
5-8% GDP growth in Q4 is expected, but its mostly from inventory restocking. Companies allowed themselves to run out of inventory and then the consumer started spending a little. Consumption in Q3 incresed, but mostly from Cash for Clunkers = govt induced
Net exports are a little bit of a positive. Employment numbers will probably be revised up.Temp employment is coming back.
Nationally, employment may come back in 2010.
But for real estate, there are still problems:
–Serious overhang in retail space
Inventory/sales ratios still favor too much inventory
–Office: We have 20 years of supply in Phoenix at the current rate of absorption
Inventory today is more about people. As people inventories correct, the office market becomes more volatile.
Future job growth will be in professional and business services, which means volatility doesn't go away
Phoenix is very close to being near the bottom
–In housing, echo boomers are having a hard time finding jobs and are living with their parents=fewer household formations
Foreclosed homeowners are also moving into apartments.
–The national view of Phoenix v. the Bay Area:
Both good markets long term Phoenix is an opportunistic market that gets hammered and comes back.
Both San Francisco and Phoenix will recover somewhat in 2011
Tech, energy and demographics will drive the recovery
Eliott Pollack ( a local Phoenix dude who has lived through all the cycles)
He's more negative:
Predicts 2014 will be when we get even
–Phoenix infrastructure for growth of 120k a year implodes when growth slows.
–Utlities have seen the lowest growth in 50 years
–102,000 excess housing units according to ASU
–Phx lost 210,000 jobs since 2007. Won't recover till 2014
–Investors are sucking up 37% of homes in Maricopa County- they will be back on the market
However, we have 84% affordability, and housing prices have turned up
–Apartment absorption negative. People are doubling up and moving into single family homes. Outlook for apartments is ugly
–We are in horrendous shape compared to the rest of the country in office. There will be no more office building in Phoenix for 5 years. —Industrial is grim, too. There's been a huge decline in absorption because of businesses shutting down and downsizing.
–Retail: negative absorption will take a decade to resolve
Greater Phx will recover in 2014, with growth back end loaded. There will be no new lots needed until 2014, and only 95,000 new homes needed.
Eliott predicts that the Fed will start closing banks as market improves, and that inflation will drive interest rates up in about two years.
In the next cycle, real estate will be an investment, not a trading vehicle, and lower internal rates of return are coming. Those returns will be in cash flows, not appreciation. And yet,real estate will still beat the stock market.
