Francine Hardaway's 2008 Predictions

by francine Hardaway on December 25, 2007

Hey, I can be as arrogant as I want on my own blog, right? I can assume the right to make predictions, because I have the use of the same crystal ball as ReadWriteWeb. Okay, they may know a little more of the facts than I do, but I have all the intuition. So I will give you my thoughts after reading their (excellent) predictions.

1)Yes, Facebook will decline.  I have been feeling it in my bones for months. Busy people are tired of trying to poke other back or be rude, and we are also up to our ears in new applications with which to bother our friends.  I hardly ever accept a new app anymore, unless it is sent to me by someone sending it only to me.  This NEVER happens.  And even if I do try an app, I never spam my friends with it. I’m too embarrassed. How can I send Stewart Alsop the Godfather Movie Quiz after I only got a 30% on it? I’m over it.  Everyone else will be, too. Except kids, and they have many choices.

2) Yes, Twitter will be acquired. The most incredible social media tool of the year for me has become Twitter. I can talk to the world, or my friends using many networks. But what happened around @SusanReynolds and her breast cancer surgery was incredible. In one day, @ConnieReece’s FrozernPeasFund raised $3500 for cancer research, simply by talking about it on Twitter, and on the day of Susan’s cancer surgery, ForzenPeasFriday, everyone changed their avatars on Twitter to a PEAvatar in support. I know Susan feels it, because four days after surgery and still with tubes in her, she’s blogging to her supporters.

Twitter is indeed a community, and fulfills the promise of social media by connecting people online who have not (yet) met face to face, and allowing them to get to really know each other in new and helpful ways. Most important, it does this in 140 characters. Less, my friends, is more.

3)The semantic web may or may not fulfill its promise in 2008, but it would have to be a pretty quick rise since it’s not out of private beta yet.  This is a case of people in Silicon Valley who have access to private betas thinking the world has already changed, when most of us here in the hinterlands can’t even access the change if we wanted to. And how fast DO we want to change? (Just a question).

4) Google will be vulnerable in some ways, but Google apps will catch on. These apps are incredibly useful, and optimized for mobile phones they truly rock.

5)Video on mobile phones will finally happen. Between Qik, Seesmic and an even better application I know of that is still in stealth mode, the average Joe will be able to capture video. I hope Seesmic becomes the next Twitter.  But again, first it will have to get out of private alpha. And the iPhone will have to have video capture in the 3G version. If it doesn’t, it will be a useless brick by the end of next year. (or just a niche product)

6)Many companies will run out of money and join the TechCrunch deadpool as VCs continue chasing capital-intensive greentech investments. Some greentech will actually catch on — especially power sources.

7)The government will do something about the credit crunch, and it will be wrong, whatever it is.. This will jar the economy.

8)Advertising dollars will continue to move online, but not to many companies who think they are going to get them and need them to survive.Advertisers are still experimenting, but with familiar properties. not startups.

9)Bloggers will continue to blog, because blogging is writing, and it’s a form of self-expression that is ageless. But people who don’t define themselves as writers will not continue to blog, because it is damned hard work and you have to enjoy it.

10)I will continue to be educated by the Marc Canters, Robert Scobles, Jeremiah Owyangs, and Dave Winers of the world and pass the information down to people in Phoenix who will continue to think I’m a strange piece of work. Happy New Year!

{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }

Stewart Alsop December 25, 2007 at 11:26 am

Francine: Please feel free to send me the Godfather Movie Quiz. I really like it when people let me win… :-)


Connie Reece December 25, 2007 at 1:35 pm

Francine, the way the Frozen Pea Fund grew out of the Twitter community and sparked a pea-revolution has been astounding. One of the most exciting social media adventures I’ve been a part of — and we’re just getting started.

Beth Kanter December 25, 2007 at 8:15 pm

I think you’re right on with #9

predictions08 December 26, 2007 at 12:49 am

Good list i added it to our tracked predictions on our twitter account

Jeremiah Owyang December 26, 2007 at 5:52 am

Great insight Francine, I’ll be expecting you to be part of this conversation with me. I enjoy when you talk back, even if you thinks I’m wrong.

Jeremiah Owyang December 26, 2007 at 5:55 am


Great predictions, and I hope you stay an active part of the conversation with us!

francine hardaway December 26, 2007 at 6:20 am

You will all have to kill me to shut me up! All my love….and please get me into some of these betas that keep rejecting me :-) I think I’ll check the investor box next time and see if they will let me in then. Checking “press” doesn’t seem to work. :-)

Chris December 26, 2007 at 3:53 pm

Does the opposite of #9 apply as well? Will more bloggers attempt writing in journals, zines or other formal publications? I think they might.

Corey Kossack January 3, 2008 at 10:12 am

We don’t think you’re a strange piece of work! If you say it to be so, I believe it. I’m finally going to get on twitter! haha. Thank you for all of your great advice, you are truly filled with wisdom :)


Dave February 7, 2008 at 9:40 am

That some good futuring there Francine.
This is David Neff over at the American Cancer Society. Thanks for helping us the spread the word about something that effects thousands of women every year. Breast Cancer is treatable when caught early.


P.S. If your coming to SXSW hear us talk Frozen Peas at our Interactive Panel.

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