Monthly Archives: November 2009

Do You Write in the Cloud?

Do You Write in the Cloud?

This week on Leo LaPorte's  excellent podcast about Google and all things cloud, there was a conversation among Mashable's Pete Cashmore, Jeff Jarvis, Gina Trapani, about how they composed their blogs. Almost all of them were composing  in the cloud, with an occasional look back to a text editor. Pete composes in WordPress, Gina composes  in MediaWiki, and Jeff also composes in blogging software. Only Leo even talked about a text editor. No one would dream of composing in Microsoft Word — online or off –because Word doesn't translate well to blogging tools.

That let me to think about the fact that I'm now composing my blog in Gmail. Most of the time, if I don't have illustrations, I compose in an email to Posterous and just send it along from Posterous to my WordPress blog! I don't even go to WordPress anymore. The only time I use something on a desktop is when I'm live blogging a conference and the wi-fi sucks (surprisingly often)–and then I use Evernote, sync it to the cloud, and move it to WordPress.

Why is this important? Because 50 years ago, I started composing on a manual typewriter when most other people composed in longhand and transcribed.  Many famous authors wrote in longhand their entire lives. People thought I was crazy for going straight to the typewriter. But I've gone seamlessly from the typewriter to the word processor (we could dictate into a  Digital Equipment Corporation word processor in the Maricopa Community Colleges in the 70s, when I was a professor.)  They thought I was crazy for dictating instead of typing when I did that.

In 1980, when I got the Apple, it was Bank Street Writer and MacWrite.

And now I'm composing in the cloud. Do you see where I'm going with this? There's a lot of futility and not much benefit in resisting change. Things have gotten easier and easier for me, and I'm writing more and more. Technology hasn't impeded my devotion to the humanities –quite the contrary. It has made both producing and consuming them far more accessible. We will be in the cloud sooner than you know. Even Office Live may be behind the times, especially for publishing..

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Searching for Waste and Fraud in Health Care? Look Absolutely Anywhere

Searching for Waste and Fraud in Health Care? Look Absolutely Anywhere

How much of our rising health care costs comes from fraud in the  health care system by players who know how to game it for their own benefit?  Enough to cloud the reform debate, that's for sure. And it can't be pinned on one player; it's up and down the value chain in medical care.

On the one hand, you have the recent 60-Minutes report on drug dealers in Miami who defraud Medicare by opening fake clinics and pharmacies. They get reimbursed for artificial limbs ordered for patients whose IDs they have bought on a black market for Medicare information.

Further up the line you have hospitals who bill Medicare for procedures that could be done in an outpatient setting where they would cost less, or for total care of a patient whose actual care is split between two hospitals, both of whom bill for the entire care. (Go look on the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services web site for the Recovery Audit Contractor pilot program in which this was discovered.

And then there's the sweetheart deal the insurers got to participate in the Medicare Advantage program, which was started when CMS was afraid not enough providers would participate in Medicare. In Medicare Advantage, all the players get paid more than by regular Medicare for providing the same services. Medicare Advantage is targeted by the cost-cutting initiatives, but here's what the plans said: "many commenters contend that, if rates are reduced, MA organizations will have trouble maintaining their provider networks, because they will have to pay providers less, and will have to raise premiums, increase co-pays and deductibles, especially in rural areas, Puerto Rico, in the case of Special Needs Plans (SNPs), PACE plans, and plans that are in direct competition with cost plans."

Finally, we get to the pharmaceutical companies, where we learn that "by suppressing negative studies, relentlessly pursuing positive trial results, and paying academic researchers to promote their therapy, Merck Schering-Plough has managed to hold onto a $4.6 billion market for a drug that has never been proven to be better than cheaper generics in preventing heart attacks or death. "

That's a pretty shocking allegation from the HealthBeatBlog, where Maggie Mahar, maker of the film "Money-Driven Medicine," does her investigative work. Naomi Freundlich has written a great piece there pointing to the fact that Merck Schering-Plough holds the patents on Vitorin and Zetia, two widely advertised drugs that in studies have proven no more effective than the vitamin niacin and a generic statin, simivastin.

And this doesn't even begin to touch controversial issues like outcomes-based medicine, which might mean fewer mammograms, CT scans, and other procedures that irradiate us often unnecessarily as the doctor either tries to prevent malpractice allegations or perhaps even owns the imaging center.

Everywhere you look there is waste and downright fraud in the health care system, perpetrated by both payers and providers, public and private. I have no doubt that Obama is right that we could fund health care reform by cleaning up the waste, but the lobbyists for the staus quo don't want it cleaned up. They are profiting from waste and fraud, not from legitimate services, IMHO.

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Attitude of Gratitude

Attitude of Gratitude

Every year at Thanksgiving I write a post about gratitude. Not that anyone cares what I'm grateful for, because everyone has his/her own set of fortunes and problems, but I like to remember mine and hope it will compel you to recall yours — especially this year. So here it is, generated while I was doing sun salutations last night in yoga.

I'm grateful because:

I'm here now. John Hardaway and Gerry Kaplan are not, and they were two wonderful men. I am alive, functional, healthy enough to appear in a yoga class and do sun salutations.

I have children. Gratitude here goes to John for making me pregnant unintentionally, and for his courage in persuading me to carry Samantha, the child of transformation. Samantha opened my eyes to the wonder of children and families, and therefore I have Chelsea, My children have been an unalloyed blessing.

I have been married multiple times
. As a result, I have not only two daughters, but also four stepsons and a step-daughter, and twelve step-grandchildren, all of whom enlightened me before my "birth" grandchild was even born. And he's going to be one year old on Dec. 16. I have the world's best extended family. Although I only have one brother, and he and his kids live across the country, I see everybody in this extended family at least once a year no matter where they live.

I was a foster parent. This has given me four adut foster children and a new foster-ish grandchildson. To see why this is important, go see "The Blind Side" this weekend.

i love my work. Coaching and mentoring entrepreneurs is my passion, and I'm able to do it every day, for money and for love. The entrepreneurs are willing to deal with my craziness.

So there you have it. Embedded in the larger points are the ones you probably were expecting, like being able to afford to travel, being able to write, discovering technology and falling in love with it, keeping my house through the recession, holding a successful conference, and having rich and varied networks of friends throughout the world. But if you think about it, they all go under one of the others above. I was always bad at outlining, so I'll skip going into this further.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving, and be sure to express your gratitude, because it makes you happy!

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Twitter, Advertising, and the Numbers

Twitter, Advertising, and the Numbers

A comment on Brian Solis' blog post this morning about the decline in Twitter's numbers turned into this post, in which I explore feelings about Twitter that I didn't even know I had:-) But the discussion about Twitter advertising has also prompted some of these thoughts, which I've been discussing with @scobleizer over on his blog. I suggest you read Brian's post and about the last four posts of Scobeizer to understand where I am coming from. This, of course, presumes you have an empty life.

I question myself about Twitter every day, as most of my non-Geek friends on Facebook are drowned in my Twitter stream and wonder why I do things like say where I am (Foursquare). They don't see any reason to use Twitter, and question whether anyone cares what they had for lunch. There has been no serious MSM discussion of Twitter as search, Twitter as discovery, or Twitter as marketing tool — all of which preoccupy our community. The phrase "real time stream" scares the pants off people, as evidenced by what happens every time FB moves another step toward real time. What we find interesting, others find annoying.

And now, Twitter is thinking of using advertising, and Ad.ly is using advertising already. Oy-vay.  Another deterrent for newbies.

But Twitter MUST cross the chasm and figure out how to be integrated into our lives. I believe it will end up being just another tool in a social network one day, as the Laconica platform suggests. At the end of the day, although world-changing, Twitter is a tool, not a product. It's a GREAT tool for some people, and a terrible tool for others. Example: Scoble hits the wall and goes down to 1500 follow-ees. Then he tries to segment by lists. And he's an uber-geek who gets paid to do this. His wife never sees him:-)

Hardaway is an uber-listener and a fast follower. So when Scoble makes lists, she makes lists. Her lists are crap. They don't contain half the good people Scoble's do. Every list she has, be it health care, politics, tech — is incomplete. So she follows Scoble's list, Palafo's list, Enoch Choi's list. Then she doesn't have time to look at their lists, and when she does, it's only to poke a toe into the latest flow of the river. She has no idea what has been happening all week, or even all day or all hour. The lists give here a glimpse of the last five minutes of ONLY the news on Palafo's list (which is often repetitive, because it's breaking news), or Scoble's list (always repetitive because geeks operate in memes).

See where I'm going with this? I'm a Twitterholic, with four accounts (me, my entrepreneurship, my health care interests, and my dog). I've invested a huge amount of time in Twitter, both for making friends (that's where it shines, but that part's going away as it grows) and for learning things. Ordinary people with real lives and families don't have time to study real time streams and Twitter apps and lists. And long-time users hardly every see their earlier Twitter-buds anymore. @newmediajim, @susanreynolds, sheilas, preppydude, and many of my long-time Twitter friends are often drowned in my stream, even though I still follow them. They surface only occasionally, and I always want to throw my arms around them, because I "discovered" them on Twitter. But now I have to follow all my IRL friends on Twitter, too, and I'm stuck. If you read this post by another early Twitter user, @conniereece, you will see similar reservations.

Conclusion: Twitter is more difficult than we think. It's not easy to adopt, especially if you are going to do more than just broadcast, which is what most celebs do. It has an unwritten etiquette, which often grabs newbies by surprise, and now it's full of marketers and spammers. All the above is difficult to capture in statistics and algorithms, but I think that's what is happening.

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There May Actually be Health Care Reform in the HCR Legislation

There May Actually be Health Care Reform in the HCR Legislation

Editor’s Note: In the post below, Tim Jost looks at provisions of the Senate Democratic health reform bill dealing with Medicare, Medicaid and CHIP, and many other significant topics. In earlier posts, Jost took a first look at the Senate bill, provided a detailed look at several issues that arise under the bill’s insurance reforms, and discussed abortion coverage and the constitutionality of the individual mandate.

My first three posts have dealt with Title I of the Senate bill, which contains the insurance reform, mandate, and affordability subsidy provisions of the bill.  Title I is only the first of nine titles of the bill, however.  This post will present an overview of the remaining eight titles of the bill, which deal with Medicaid and CHIP; Medicare (focusing on quality and efficiency); prevention, wellness, and public health; the health care workforce; transparency and program integrity; improving access to innovative therapies; and the CLASS (community living assistance services and support) program.  The revenue provisions of the bill will not be examined. 

A vast undertaking. Three features of this legislation are immediately striking.  First, the undertaking is vast.  The 274 sections of these eight titles fill 1,678 pages of the 2074 page bill.  Some of these provisions offer small tweaks to existing programs while a number create demonstration projects, research programs, or commissions to study particular issues.  Other provisions, however,  create whole new programs, such as the CLASS Act program or the biosimilars pathway, or make revolutionary changes in existing programs, such as the Medicaid expansions. 

Many of these provisions are scored by CBO as having no cost consequences or as costing or saving a few hundred million dollars over ten years.  Some, however, have massive financial consequences.  The Medicaid expansions are predicted to cost $374 billion over ten years, while the reductions in annual updates to Medicare fee-for-service rates are scored at saving $192 billion and the changes to Medicare Advantage plan payments at saving $118 billion. 

In total, the bill hopes to save $436 billion from program cost reductions and raise $486 billion in revenues to help cover the cost of the coverage expansions.  Of course, the Medicare Modernization Act was also huge, and Congress rarely passes a budget reconciliation act that does not make a multitude of changes in the Medicare and Medicaid programs, but this is the mother of all budget reconciliation acts. 

Big differences between the House and Senate bills. Second, it is striking how different the Senate bill is from the House bill.  Only about a third of the sections in these eight titles have cognates in the House bill and many of these are worded differently.  Many of the provisions of the Senate bill are completely absent in the House bill, and visa versa.  The 350 pages of the House bill dealing with health services for Native Americans have no equivalent in the Senate bill.  The revenue provisions of the two bills are completely different.  Given the vast differences between the bills, it is difficult to see how fast-track “mini-conference” or “ping-pong” strategies recently discussed in Politico could possibly work. Conference negotiations reconciling the two bills are bound to be long and difficult.

Overhauling the health care system. A third prominent feature of the legislation is the earnestness of its attempts to revolutionize the health care system to improve the quality of health care, promote patient safety, reduce the cost of health care by encouraging more efficient delivery models and reduced utilization of unnecessary care, and support prevention and wellness.  This year’s health reform legislation has often been criticized for being health insurance reform rather than health care reform, and for not doing enough to control the cost of health care.  Those who offer these criticisms have obviously not read the bills or even tried to understand them.  As is true with the House bill, there are few ideas for health care restructuring that are not in the Senate bill, at least as demonstration or pilot programs. 

Accountable care organizations, payment bundling, gainsharing, several new pay-for-performance and quality reporting programs, patient-centered outcomes research, and shared-decision making initiatives are all included in the bill, as is a tax on higher-cost health plans and the creation of a new Independent Medicare Advisory Board that would be able to implement Medicare cost-saving proposals independently in years when Medicare cost growth was unsustainable unless Congress intervened. 

The CBO has scored many of these provisions as achieving only minor cost savings, but this is in part a problem of CBO’s difficulty in scoring innovative cost-saving programs.   Section 4402 of the bill, parenthetically, expresses the sense of the Senate that Congress should work with the CBO to develop better methodologies for scoring prevention and wellness programs.

So, what does the bill do?

Medicaid

If adopted, the legislation will introduce the most revolutionary changes in Medicaid in the program’s forty-three year history.  Medicaid was built on the model of the New Deal public welfare cash assistance programs and has always been a categorical program (covering the elderly, blind, disabled, and pregnant, and dependent children and their families), although Medicaid categories have become increasingly numerous and complex over time.  Under the Senate bill, the program would be extended as of 2014 to cover all poor Americans whose household income is below 133% of the federal poverty level (FPL).  If states want to expand coverage earlier, the could do so as early as January 1, 2011.  The Medicaid expansion would be less than that found in the House bill (which expands to 150% of FPL) and would go into effect a year later.

Newly eligible recipients will not necessarily receive the same benefits as traditional Medicaid recipients, as the states can limit coverage to “benchmark” coverage as they can now for certain categories under the Deficit Reduction Act.  Benchmark coverage must cover at least all essential benefits available through the Exchange.  Asset tests would no longer apply in Medicaid after 2013 except for the elderly and disabled and for long term care services.  Medicaid eligibility for non-elderly and non-disabled would after 2013 be determined based on modified gross income without current income or expense disregards, which means that for many persons the actual increase in the eligibility ceiling will be much less than it would appear at first glance because more income would be counted.

The federal government will cover 100% of the cost of expanded coverage from 2014 to 2106.  For 2017 and 2018 the level of  additional federal assistance (FMAP) a state would receive would depend on whether the state had already covered some non-elderly, non-pregnant individuals.  After 2019, all states would receive a  FMAP increase of 32.3 percentage points for the expansion populations, up to a total of 95% FMAP.  States would be required to maintain CHIP eligibility levels through 2019,  but FMAP for CHIP would also increase for FY 2014 through 2019 by 23 percentage points, subject to a 100% cap. 

The bill would cover a number of new Medicaid benefits, including freestanding birth center services, community-based attendant services and supports to disabled beneficiaries who would otherwise need institutional care, expanded home and community-based services, expanded prevention services, tobacco cessation services for pregnant recipients (the House bill would cover tobacco cessation for all recipients), and health homes for recipients with chronic conditions.  Prescription drug rebates would increase, but disproportionate share hospital payments to the states would decrease as the rate of uninsurance dropped because of implementation of other insurance reforms.

Medicare

The Senate bill contains over 500 pages of changes in the Medicare program. Some of these provisions would reduce Medicare payments, including reductions in payments for home health, disproportionate share hospitals, advanced imaging services, and, above all Medicare Advantage plans (which would transition to a payment system based on competitive bids by 2015 at a savings over 10 years of $118 billion).  Productivity adjustments in market basket updates and additional reductions in market basket updates would save Medicare another $150 billion over 10 years.  Freezing the income threshold at which higher income Medicare beneficiaries pay increased Part B premiums at 2010 levels through 2019 for would bring in another $25 billion. The vast majority of the Medicare provisions, however, are directed at improving the quality, effectiveness, and in some instances, benefits of the Medicare program.

The Medicare title of the bill begins with a number of pay-for-performance and quality initiatives that have no exact equivalent in the House bill.  These include value-based purchasing programs for hospitals and physicians and payment penalties for hospital-acquired conditions.  The bill also requires HHS to establish and update annually a national strategy for health care quality measurement and improvement.  The Senate bill establishes accountable care organization and hospital readmission reduction programs, a national pilot program for payment bundling, and a demonstration program for chronically-ill beneficiaries to receive home-based primary care.  The bill also includes a host of payment extensions and improvements, including several for rural areas, but it includes only a one year 0.5 percent positive update for physician payment (in place of the 21 point reduction that was otherwise scheduled), leaving for another bill the inevitable sustainable growth rate fix. 

Although the bill cuts Medicare Advantage payments, it provides performance bonuses for Medicare Advantage plan care coordination and management and for quality achievements. It prohibits Medicare Advantage plans from charging beneficiaries higher cost sharing for specific services than is allowed in the fee-for-service program and requires plans that offer extra benefits to give priority to cost-sharing reductions and wellness and preventive care services over benefits not covered by Medicare.  HHS is given authority after 2011 to refuse to offer Medicare Advantage and prescription drug plans that significantly increase beneficiary cost sharing or decrease benefits.  For traditional Medicare beneficiaries, the bill removes cost-sharing obligations from most preventive services, including an annual wellness visit and personalized prevention plan.  The bill would also require Medigap policies C and F, two of the most popular offerings, to include nominal cost-sharing to reduce use of Part B services.

The bill makes a number of changes in the Part D outpatient drug program, which resemble changes in the House bill but are not as generous.  The Senate bill would require drug manufacturers to provide a 50% discount for brand-name drugs and biologics purchased in the donut hole after July 1, 2010, but would not allow beneficiaries to count the discount against the out-of-pocket limit, as would the House bill.  The bill reduces the donut hole by increasing the initial coverage limit by $500 for 2010, but only for 2010, as compared to the House bill, which takes an immediate $500 bite out of the donut hole, and then proceeds to eliminate it by 2019. 

A signature feature of the Senate bill is the creation of a new 15-member independent Medicare Advisory Board  composed of health care, health policy, and health economics experts as well as representatives of employers, third-party payors, consumers, and the elderly appointed by the President that is responsible for presenting Congress with proposals for reducing excess Medicare cost growth.  In years when Medicare costs are projected to exceed a target rate, the Board will be required to make a proposal to reduce cost growth, which will go into effect unless Congress, following expedited procedures develops an alternative proposal.  The Board’s proposals cannot ration care; raise taxes or Part B premiums; change Medicare benefit, eligibility, or cost-sharing standards; or reduce payments for providers whose payments have already been reduced by the market-basket adjustments, which will limit the Board largely to reducing Part C or Part D expenditures.  The CBO scored the Board as saving $23.4 billion over 10 years.

Prevention, Wellness, Public Health, and Workforce Initiatives

The Senate bill contains a host of prevention, wellness, and public health initiatives that create or expand various task forces and create a variety of  education and grant programs. Like the House bill, the Senate bill requires chain restaurants with more than 20 locations and vending machines to disclose calorie content on their menu boards or on a poster next to the vending machine and chain restaurants to make additional nutritional information available on request. The bill requires employers with more than 50 employees to provide break time and a place for breastfeeding mothers to express milk.  It also funds a demonstration project for addressing childhood obesity.

Like the House bill, the legislation contains a number of programs for supporting the healthcare workforce, focusing on primary care professionals; nursing students; public and allied health professionals; pediatric subspecialists; general, pediatric, and public health dentistry; and disadvantaged students who commit to work in underserved areas.  The bill also provides for a 10% payment bonus for 5 years beginning in 2011 for primary care practitioners and general surgeons practicing in underserved areas. 

Transparency and Program Integrity

No health care reform bill would be complete without a host of new program integrity requirements and remedies, and the Senate bill contains over 200 pages of them.  Among these are a number of provisions to address conflict of interest issues.  The legislation would prohibit new physician-owned hospitals from participating in Medicare after February 1, 2010.  It would require drug, device, biological, and medical supply manufacturers to report most transfers of value to physicians, physician medical or group practices, or teaching hospitals or physician ownership or investment interests.  With some exceptions, the information will generally be available in a searchable public database.  The requirements preempt duplicative state laws, but not state laws beyond the scope of the federal law. The law further requires physicians who refer patients for ancillary services within their group practices to inform the patients that they can also receive the services from other physicians.  The bill also requires drug companies to disclose to HHS information regarding distribution of drug samples and pharmaceutical benefit managers to disclose to HHS specific information about their practices.  Finally, charitable hospitals would face new requirements, including periodic community needs assessments. 

Comparative Effectiveness Research, Malpractice, Access to Innovative Therapies, and the CLASS program.

The Senate bill establishes a private, nonprofit entity to identify priorities and provide for the conduct of comparative effectiveness research (CER), renamed  “patient-centered outcomes research.” and sunsets the Federal Coordinating Council created by the ARRA for CER.  The section contains extensive protections intended to assure that CER findings are not used to discriminate against the elderly or discourage individuals from choosing health care treatments based on their values as to a tradeoff between extending life and risking disability.  The program is specifically prohibited from using a dollars-per-quality adjusted life year approach as a threshold for determining if a type of health care is effective or recommended or for determining coverage, reimbursement, or an incentive program. 

The legislation expresses a sense of the Senate that someone should do something about malpractice reform.

The bill creates a pathway for approving biosimilars (generic biologics) similar to the House provisions.  A new biosimilar could not be approved until 12 years after the original product was first approved. The bill further provides a market exclusivity period of one year for the first biosimilar before a second biosimilar could be approved. 

Finally, the bill would establish Senator Kennedy’s signature national voluntary insurance program for purchasing community living assistance services and supports. The program is supposed to be self-funded and actuarially sound and would provide cash benefits of not less than $50 a day to a plan member who develops specific functional limitations.

The Senate bill will undoubtedly be amended further as the it progresses through the Senate and will change even further in conference.  Stay tuned for further developments.

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This entry was posted on Saturday, November 21st, 2009 at 8:36 pm and is filed under All Categories, Children, Health Law, Health Reform, Medicaid, Medicare, Prevention, Quality, Workforce. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

I’m outsourcing my own reading of the Senate Bill to Tim Jost, who knows much more than I do. He has heartened me about the amount of REAL reform present in the legislation going through both houses. Now I hope something passes, and I will shut my cynical mouth.

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Didn’t Know Infusionsoft was So Cool

Didn’t Know Infusionsoft was So Cool

My bad. Infusionsoft has been a sponsor of the Arizona Entrepreneurship Conference for three years now, and I had not ever visited their facility in Gilbert, which is ONE MILE from Gangplank, where I hang out several times a week. So today I went over and took a tour.

Here's what I found out:
1)as a company, they've grown from 40 to 140 employees in about two years
2)it's because they are very put together. They have a BHAG, which is to be a Quickbooks for small business sales
3)They have a plan, with goals, objectives, and quarterly deliverables
4)they have half a football field, a basket, a massage chair, and a fully-stocked break room
5) They have a goal for response time of under two minutes for telephone customer support
6)they've been funded twice
7)they sponsor community events

I was very, very impressed.  They look very much like a software company in Palo Alto.

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Independents Bolting from Obama? Of Course

Independents Bolting from Obama? Of Course
WASHINGTON - JANUARY 20:  (L to R) U.S. Sen. J...
Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I am a proud Independent bolting from Obama. This morning on “Morning Joe” somebody said all the Independents were doing it. If so, this might be the first time I do anything “all” the people do. I think each of us, true to the term, has his or her own reasons. Here are mine, and they surprise even me for the order in which they occur.

1)Failure to end “don’t ask, don’t tell.” I’m not gay, and I’m not in the military, so I have zero vested interest in this issue, except that I see it as a bellwether: He promised to do this. It’s a small issue compared to health care, Afghanistan, or jobs. But he hasn’t even kept this promise.

2)Green jobs. Van Jones became a human sacrifice to a corrupt political system whose interests he didn’t serve.  He’s gone, and so is the focus on precisely what we need to succeed the next era, save the planet, AND right the economy. Even if Al Gore is wrong, Arab oil would be a good enough reason to go for alternative energy technologies.  Come on, Obama, you promised this, too. But instead you’ve defaulted to China while using the green jobs money to bail out Goldman Sachs. I believe that only a laser focus on energy efficiency, clean energy, and other new entrepreneurial technologies will keep us a world leader. Banks won’t.

3)Bailing out the banks. I was against this. It sent me a clear message that money controls Washington, and everything else, despite all the blather about Main Steet. Campaign contributions control everything. And having so many people from Goldman Sachs in the administration, even if they are smart, is wrong. It doesn’t admit other points of view. My credit card rates were raised to 29.99% over the summer for no reason. I watched it, commented on it, and finally got it corrected. But I have a very loud voice and a very good credit rating. If it happened to me, just imagine what is happening to everyone else.

And now we get to the issues on which he gets my total disdain.

4)Continuing to fight in the middle East.  I disagree with this (read Michael Oren’s book Power Faith and Fantasy and you will, too). I understand that it’s difficult to act on a global stage. But we’ve been fighting the Barbary pirates with no hope of victory since 1776. In fact, we only have a Navy because we tried to get past the “musselmen” (old term for Muslims) to trade. Jefferson noticed that they didn’t view the sanctity of human life the way we do. That isn’t going to change.

5) Health care. He defaulted that one to Congress, and you can see what a clusterflock that is. The same Congress that’s controlled by bank lobbyists one day can turn around and be controlled by pharma lobbyists the next. We have now gotten to the “pass anything” point, where the bills now being discussed do not change delivery, control costs, or improve the health of Americans.

So I’m an independent. I believe with John McCain on campaign finance reform, and with Keith Olbermann on the need for free clinics. No one can box in my opinions and call me a radical or a conservative accurately. I’m both, on an issue by issue basis. And I have no respect for Obama  right now because he is what my friend and mentor Ed Robson calls a “shaper,” — a hockey metaphor for a buy who looks good skating but doesn’t really do anything. Or maybe he’s that basketball player who dribbles the ball up and down the court and never takes the shot.

I really want him to succeed.  I voted for him, I cried for him. I still think it’s a historic moment for America that we elected him.

But talk is cheap, as I have just demonstrated. I hope he grows into the job before I have to vote again.

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My Very First Podcast

My Very First Podcast
Inaugural Podcast by Francine Hardaway  
Download now or listen on posterous

Inaugural Podcast.mp3 (516 KB)

Yesterday by chance, and I do mean by chance, I wandered into a PodcampAz session called "The Audacity of Podcasting." I had no idea that Audacity was open source podcasting software, and I didn't even know you needed software for podcasting. I think that's because I long ago removed Garage Band from my MacBook Air to make room for music and photos.

Well, in the space of an hour yesterday I downloaded Audacity, then downloaded Levelator to level my voice, then downloaded Lame to make my files into MP3s.
Then I went to the Apple Store and bought an external  Snowflake microphone.

Then I took a slight detour to unbox the Magic Mouse I bought with the microphone. Getting that set up took an hour. My bad. I am used to a track pad and don't even know what a mouse should do anymore, so how could I be trusted with a Magic Mouse?

Then I opened Audacity and realized I'd forgotten most of what I'd been told yesterday.
Then I couldn't get Audacity to recognize the microphone.

It's now 3:52, and I've been working on this project for four hours. I have about 30 seconds of audio to upload, and I pray that it makes it.

It's now time for my nap, isn't it? Or wait a minute…it's time for TWIT! Let's oursource that podcasting to the experts.

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The Highlight of AZEC09

The Highlight of AZEC09

Was a guy named Norris Kreuger, who is a Babson fellow in Idaho and wrote a song for Tara. Here it is in its world premier.

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Smart People with Narrow Perspectives

Smart People with Narrow Perspectives

This morning I sat in a room at the Phoenix Sheraton, built during the last upturn, and listened to the head of the San Francisco Office of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, talk to a room full of old white men in suits. (Maybe 6 women). Always one to dress for the occasion, I wore jeans brought back from my trip to India and a trendy sweater over my gym top.

I live in a different world. These people want Janet Yellen to tell them exactly what month the real estate market will come back in Phoenix. Me, I am on Twitter and I read economics blogs. Nothing she said was unknown to me. I’ll give you my conclusions, but first, as they say on Marketplace, let’s do the numbers.

Here’s the Fed party line:

The economy has returned to growth after a year and a half of recession. It seems that it has entered a sustained period of expansion. Yellen sees meaningful upturns in consumer spending, manufacturing, and foreign trade. BUT the strength and durability of the expansion is in question because some of the rebound is from stimulus, and many financial institutions are still hobbled with bad loans. Households are burdened with debt, and wealth has been hit by the decline in house and stock assets. Worse, the unemployment rate of 10.2% is the highest since 1983. 7 million jobs have vanished.

Yellen admits it’s “not fun to ponder a subdued recovery, but a year ago there was a real possibility of an outright depression.
This has been the worst downturn since 1930s. Last year, economic output dropped 3%.”

Phoenix, she tells this audience of bankers and real estate people, has been particularly hard hit, going from unemployment of
2.9% in 2007 to 8.2% in 2009. Most construction jobs are gone. [Ed.note: it would be worse, but people are leaving Arizona in droves.]

But we can be heartened by the third quarter, during which investment in housing rose 25% off a horrible base, manufacturing rebounded from the cash for clunkers program, and exports surged.

A massive and concerted response by central banks all over the world averted a worse crisis. The Federal funds rate is  still close to zero, and much government spending hasn’t been spent yet and will make the next year better. Not to mention the consumer, who will have to replace those broken appliances at some point.

How strong will the upturn be?
With reservoirs of slack in the economy (jargon for large numbers of unemployed people), we really need a strong rebound to put so many unemployed back to work, so Yellen sees a less than robust recovery. As government financing diminishes, private demand must increase, and may be anemic.

The banks

It will take quite a while for financial institutions to heal. The credit crunch hasn’t gone away. Smaller businesses are feeling the pinch and won’t hire, and delinquencies on credit and rising unemployment keep financial institutions rocked back on their heels.

The consumer is done for
We may be witnessing the start of a new era for consumers, as households are de-leveraging all over the world. Those countries with greater debt before the crisis have seen greater declines in consumer spending: the US Savings rate was 1%,  now averages 4% and might rise as individual households are belt tightening. In the long run, this higher saving produces more capital for infrastructure, but may dampen the economy short term, as will joblessness and barely rising wages

As for real estate…

The outlook for the residential market is uncertain, but the prospects for commercial are bleak.
Coming off the wildest rise in residential real estate in the last 50 years, house prices peaked more than 50% above the level that could be supported by underlying rental values. The good news: housing prices are approaching ranges that are more in line with fundamentals, and appear to be edging up. Housing construction contributed to GDP for first time in 3 years during Q3

Phoenix was an exaggeration of the nation, with truly exceptional price jumps in 2004-5, so price declines here are 50% or more, about 1.5x that of the nation. But home prices in Phoenix are above their lows and 2009 will be the trough for permits.

Not so fast
The  housing market is nowhere near health. Arizona’s rising unemployment means our foreclosures are 3x the national median. Developers and creditorsare caught with an excess of raw land and finished lots, which takes the value for raw land off 50% across the country. Even though the outlook for housing has turned up nationally, the supply of credit for nonconforming mortgages is tight and there is no market for private mortgage-backed securities.

And commercial is “worrisome”

This sector’s problems stem from the credit crunch, not from lax lending standards. Office vacancies are 25%. Average cap rates have seen spreads double. And there’s no market for mortgage-backed securities here either. Large volumes of loans are coming up for renewals. Lenders and investors will renegotiate terms, and owners will modify, repay, or put up more equity. Federal regulators are so scared of the commercial downturn that they are issuing guidelines for sound practices for loan workouts.

So this recovery won’t feel like a recovery. And although it won’t have inflation mixed in this year, expect it down the line, because at some point the Fed will have to tighten. Right now, they’re still scared of deflation.

Takeaways: (mine alone) These people don’t get it.  They don’t understand the influence of outsourcing, offshoring, online commerce, and the gig economy on their real estate projects.  Worse, they don’t understand (yet) that a younger generation of more globally literate, tech savvy people are going to try to get off the grid and go for sustainability, not another upturn. I felt sorriest for the guy who has been developing high end resorts all his life and got up to ask a question: “when do you think the rich will start spending again?”

Decades, dude, decades. They’re the ones who quit spending and laid off people first. The rich aren’t stupid. That’s why they’re rich.

Posted via email from Not Really Stealthmode

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